The FCC recently published their "Mobile Broadband Spectrum Forecast" (pdf) that explains how providing additional spectrum over the next 5 years will help to avoid over $100 Billion in expenses that would mostly be incurred by cellular carriers, but ultimately paid for by consumers.
The paper put out by the FCC reveals (or reinforces) lots of details about the projected growth of Mobile Broadband data use, such as:
- making new spectrum available has historically taken between six and thirteen years
- mobile data growth trends are expected to continue beyond the near-term forecast
- there is identified need for timely action to free spectrum for mobile broadband
- mobile data demand will outstrip available wireless capacity in the near-term
- subscriptions to mobile data services increased by 40%
- average data consumed by phones increased 450% between Q1-2009 and Q2-2010: 44mb to 202mb
- 42% of consumers are estimated to own a smartphone, up from 16% in 2007
- Blackberry consumes twice the amount of data monthly as a normal mobile handset
- iPhone consumes five times the data monthly as Blackberry
- Aircards consume five times more data monthly than the iPhone
- Aircard users consume 1.4 GB per month -- 56 times the amount of data used by a regular cell phone
- AT&T has seen mobile network traffic increase 5,000% since becoming exclusive US carrier of the iPhone in 2007
- Users of Clear 4G WiMAX service consume 7 GB per month -- 280 times the amount of data used by a regular cell phone
- 3 different reports state mobile data demand is expected to grow between 25 and 50 times current levels within 5 years
- an estimated 99.6% of the population now has cellular wireless access
- in 2009, there were a total of 245,912 cell towers in the US
- estimate of the average cost of a cell-ste is $550,000
- releasing 275 MHz of spectrum saves $120 billion in capital expenses to accommodate mobile data demand
I like this as a 'conclusion' for this blogpost:
This paper does not undertake an analysis of net social benefits resulting from making new spectrum available. The economic benefits estimated herein represent only the reduction in cost of meeting mobile data demand. This estimate of value created by releasing new spectrum for broadband is narrow, and limited to the avoidance of unnecessary costs. This paper does not undertake a comprehensive analysis of the benefits to society that may result from making new spectrum available, which some economists estimate as multiples of the private value.
If you want a better understanding of how the FCC views the growth of Mobile Broadband data consumption over the next five years, make sure you download the file and read the entire 27 page report.
